← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 43% | 49% | 2.30 | value: +13% |
| Brighton win | 33% | 25% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.95 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Tottenham +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.02 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 37' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Tottenham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 127.00 | 463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1840.94 | 1934.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.71 | 31.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 2.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 24.22 |
| state index | 0.63 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 82.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 2.30 |