← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Wolves win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Brentford −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
| 4' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 28' | ⚽ | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Carlos Borges · Wolves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2196.00 | 431.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1604.05 | 1531.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.57 | -28.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.70 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.20 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 175.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.01 |