← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 81% | 77% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 19% | 8.18 | value: +58% |
| Southampton win | 6% | 3% | 18.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −2 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Southampton −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 74% | 1.45 | value: +7% |
| Under | 34% | 26% | 2.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tyler Dibling · Southampton |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 88' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 643.00 | 462.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.45 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 2112.62 | 1672.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.53 | -36.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 25.64 |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 114.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 2.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.18 |