β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Mon, Sep 30, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 63% | 52% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.69 | fair |
| Southampton win | 15% | 29% | 6.79 | value: +99% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth β1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Southampton β1 | 46% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 60% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 40% | 2.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | β½ | Evanilson Β· Bournemouth |
| 27' | π¨ | Mateus Fernandes Β· Southampton |
| 32' | β½ | Dango Ouattara Β· Bournemouth |
| 39' | β½ | Antoine Semenyo Β· Bournemouth |
| 45' | π¨ | Marcus Tavernier Β· Bournemouth |
| 50' | π¨ | MiloΕ‘ Kerkez Β· Bournemouth |
| 51' | β½ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis Β· Southampton |
| 52' | π¨ | Yukinari Sugawara Β· Southampton |
| 55' | π¨ | Tyler Dibling Β· Southampton |
| 55' | π¨ | Flynn Downes Β· Southampton |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| π¨ |
| Adam Lallana Β· Southampton |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 457.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1799.64 | 1680.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.86 | -31.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | β |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 1.23 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 25.68 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.64 | 1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| travel km | β | 36.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.42 |