← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 40% | 50% | 2.45 | value: +24% |
| Ipswich win | 32% | 29% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Tyler Dibling · Southampton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Southampton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Southampton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dara O'Shea · Ipswich |
| 61' | 🟨 | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
| 63' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 448.00 | 1025.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1680.07 | 1765.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.31 | -0.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 26.30 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 217.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.64 |