← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 40% | 36% | 2.41 | fair |
| Fulham win | 33% | 30% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.57 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 22' | ⚽ | Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adama Traoré · Fulham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Reiss Nelson · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1178.00 | 1055.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1606.15 | 1730.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.25 | 29.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.34 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 400.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.74 |