← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 59% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
| Wolves win | 19% | 29% | 5.50 | value: +62% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Wolves −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 16' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 25' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 27' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Aston Villa |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 74' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| Ross Barkley · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 690.00 | 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1889.64 | 1749.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.49 | -25.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | -2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 27.04 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 18.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.98 |