← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 47% | 54% | 2.07 | value: +11% |
| Wolves win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Newcastle +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 66% | 1.68 | value: +11% |
| Under | 42% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 73' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 80' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 411.00 | 1049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 4.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1756.11 | 1935.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.77 | 13.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 14.13 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -2.28 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 27.12 |
| state index | -0.49 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 267.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.91 |