← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +5% |
| Southampton win | 24% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Man United +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 68% | 1.56 | value: +6% |
| Under | 38% | 32% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 35' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · Man United |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 57' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Man United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 71' | 🟨 | Maxwel Cornet · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 79' | 🟥 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 441.00 | 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1418.24 | 1692.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.91 | 7.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 12.85 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -2.02 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 25.58 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 290.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.41 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.59 |