← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 39% | 26% | 2.53 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 37% | 48% | 2.66 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Tottenham +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Lloyd Kelly · Newcastle |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 37' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Dan Burn · Tottenham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1035.00 | 428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.93 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1927.80 | 1910.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.05 | 13.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 1.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 6.98 | 7.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 2.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 25.29 |
| state index | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 388.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 2.23 |