← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 68% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.25 | value: +34% |
| West Ham win | 13% | 12% | 7.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +1.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| West Ham +1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Rúben Dias · West Ham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 61' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Max Kilman · West Ham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · West Ham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 61.00 | 2983.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1832.67 | 2192.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.66 | 24.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 91.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 2.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.56 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.50 | 2.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 263.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 0.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 2.36 |