← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 48% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
| Wolves win | 25% | 35% | 3.88 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 10' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 12' | ⚽ | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 32' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 274.00 | 396.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1762.52 | 1754.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.00 | -39.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | -3.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.22 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 77.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 2.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.97 |