← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 50% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.94 | fair |
| Wolves win | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Wolves +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 27' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 49' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 58' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 63' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 71' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 80' | ⚽ | João Félix · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 390.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1768.08 | 1919.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.95 | 17.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 2.75 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | -2.85 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 23.71 |
| state index | -0.28 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 181.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.90 |