← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 44% | 33% | 2.19 | fair |
| Luton win | 32% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 39% | 4.00 | value: +56% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Luton +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 69% | 1.50 | value: +3% |
| Under | 35% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Luton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Adama Traoré · Fulham |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 54' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 69' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adama Traoré · Fulham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Joseph Johnson · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 565.00 | 1053.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 4.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1511.11 | 1593.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.52 | 9.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -2.85 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.72 | 28.30 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 47.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.65 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 1.33 |