← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 69% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.59 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 14% | 15% | 7.23 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Chelsea −1.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 65% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 27' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Miloš Kerkez · Bournemouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Benoît Badiashile · Bournemouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 22 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 323.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1712.25 | 1590.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.23 | 8.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.53 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.84 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.88 | 26.05 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.39 |