← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 43% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
| Brentford win | 33% | 38% | 2.99 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 48' | ⚽ | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 66' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Newcastle |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neal Maupay · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Pope · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2057.00 |
| 930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 4.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1618.69 | 1701.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.54 | -16.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | 1.24 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 27.63 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 397.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 2.32 |