← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 78% | 70% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
| Everton win | 9% | 20% | 13.07 | value: +164% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Arsenal −2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 68% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 40' | ⚽ | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal |
| 50' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jurriën Timber · Arsenal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jordan Pickford · Everton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 504.00 |
| 504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1892.01 | 1603.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.65 | 47.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.60 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.76 |
| league points | 86.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.98 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 29.05 |
| state index | 1.90 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.25 |