← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, May 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 40% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
| Man United win | 36% | 37% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Man United +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 37' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Newcastle |
| 49' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 57' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 62' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 81' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 84' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 714.00 | 926.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 4.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1884.45 | 1921.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.87 | 11.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 26.45 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 173.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 2.42 |