β Premier League 2023-24 Β· Tue, May 14, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Kavanagh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 69% | 62% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 23% | 6.35 | value: +48% |
| Tottenham win | 15% | 14% | 6.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tottenham +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Man City +1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 61% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 39% | 3.75 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |