← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, May 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Aston Villa win | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Liverpool +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 72% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Emiliano Martínez · Liverpool |
| 12' | ⚽ | Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa |
| 23' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jarell Quansah · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 559.00 | 2608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 4.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1720.56 | 1849.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.79 | -2.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 1.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 67.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 1.72 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.10 |
| state index | -0.22 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 125.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.96 |