← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 52% | 43% | 1.88 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 24% | 35% | 4.04 | value: +43% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 15' | 🟨 | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
| 16' | ⚽ | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 34' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 74' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 80' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 162.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1748.67 | 1902.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.93 | 36.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 72.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 24.87 |
| state index | 0.25 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 174.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 2.54 |