← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 43% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
| Wolves win | 30% | 34% | 3.31 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.63 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 54% | 2.07 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | 🟨 | Boubacar Traoré · Wolves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 73' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Naouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Crystal Palace |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Naouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟥 | Naouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 284.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1790.89 | 1836.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.40 | 76.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 46.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -2.03 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.01 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.60 |