← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 51% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +5% |
| Luton win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Luton −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 52% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 48% | 3.04 | value: +45% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Luton |
| 10' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Luton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 54' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 76' | ⚽ | George Earthy · West Ham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Reece Burke · Luton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1623.00 |
| 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1641.67 | 1518.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.07 | -17.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 49.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -2.84 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.81 | 26.78 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 49.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.79 |