← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 73% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.53 | fair |
| Burnley win | 12% | 20% | 8.32 | value: +70% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −1.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Burnley −1.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 64% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 36% | 4.33 | value: +55% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley |
| 32' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 47' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Tottenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley |
| 82' | ⚽ | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Lorenz Assignon · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 315.00 | 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1691.92 | 1479.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.75 | 12.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| league points | 60.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.91 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 283.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.49 |