← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 60% | 67% | 1.60 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.84 | fair |
| Brighton win | 19% | 14% | 5.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Brighton −1 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 60% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Billy Gilmour · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 54' | 🟨 | Julio Enciso · Brighton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Almirón · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benicio Boaitey · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 922.00 | 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.81 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1713.69 | 1653.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.56 | -30.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 26.79 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 468.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.10 |