← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 45% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Brentford win | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Brentford −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 315.00 |
| 2049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1601.85 | 1607.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.23 | 19.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 48.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.72 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 137.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.45 |