← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 67% | 60% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.90 | value: +14% |
| Tottenham win | 16% | 21% | 6.40 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Liverpool −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 68% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 32% | 4.00 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 44' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 47' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 57' | 🟨 | Emerson Royal · Tottenham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
| 63' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 13 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2600.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.07 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| elo | 2024.73 | 1905.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.70 | -33.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 75.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | 1.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.82 |
| state index | 1.05 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.46 |