← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.15 | fair |
| West Ham win | 17% | 22% | 5.91 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Chelsea −1.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 64% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 30' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 34' | 🟨 | Angelo Ogbonna · West Ham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 13 |
| 14 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 309.00 | 1617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1679.19 | 1657.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.64 | -37.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.98 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.60 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 51.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.17 | 29.60 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 15.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 0.93 |