← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 88% | 77% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 14% | 13.50 | value: +93% |
| Wolves win | 5% | 8% | 24.00 | value: +103% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −2.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wolves −2.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 73% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 35' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 53' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 54' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 64' | 🟨 | Boubacar Traoré · Wolves |
| 66' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 85' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 2 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 4 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 2864.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1958.27 | 1584.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.23 | -21.72 |
| eye test v1 | 2.13 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 79.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.47 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.44 | 27.22 |
| state index | 2.09 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 99.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.38 | 0.89 |