← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 48% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Burnley win | 29% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 32% | 4.21 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Newcastle +0.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.89 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 19' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Maxime Estève · Burnley |
| 40' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Newcastle |
| 86' | ⚽ | Dara O'Shea · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 17 | Shots | 23 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 703.00 | 915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 4.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1734.07 | 1914.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.29 | 8.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.85 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 26.72 |
| state index | 0.55 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 137.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.95 |