← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 79% | 71% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.25 | value: +5% |
| Bournemouth win | 7% | 14% | 14.00 | value: +101% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bournemouth −1.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 63% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 70' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 84' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 489.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1881.23 | 1606.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.95 | 16.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.47 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| league points | 80.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 25.86 |
| state index | 1.55 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -1.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| travel km | — | 151.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.58 |