← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.21 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 22% | 20% | 4.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Arsenal +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Arsenal |
| 27' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Arsenal |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 302.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1927.38 | 2073.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.35 | 5.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 60.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 4.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.75 | 2.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 2.11 |