← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Brighton win | 28% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 57% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 43% | 3.02 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 13' | ⚽ | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 52' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Bournemouth |
| 56' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Billy Gilmour · Brighton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Valentín Barco · Brighton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 302.00 |
| 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1588.15 | 1660.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.40 | -28.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| league points | 45.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.76 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 27.10 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.72 |