← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 47% | 61% | 2.10 | value: +28% |
| Chelsea win | 29% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 15% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Marc Cucurella · Aston Villa |
| 42' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 49' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 49' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 62' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 66' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 81' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 543.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 4.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1775.17 | 1660.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.41 | 4.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 1.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 66.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 1.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 23.87 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.46 |