← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 72% | 74% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.30 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 12% | 14% | 8.59 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sheffield United −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 36% | 3.45 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Sheffield United |
| 42' | ⚽ | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 81' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 693.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1717.54 | 1390.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.94 | -15.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 50.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 11.10 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -1.35 |
| solidity v1 | -2.14 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 55.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.65 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.43 |