← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 43% | 33% | 2.31 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.69 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 60' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Newcastle |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 83.00 | 905.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 4.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1584.75 | 1717.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.36 | 20.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 11.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| travel km | — | 410.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.22 |