← Premier League 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Wolves win | 35% | 33% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.32 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 37' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 79' | 🟥 | Miloš Kerkez · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 12 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 267.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1799.90 | 1794.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.54 | -1.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.01 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.56 | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.25 |