← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 68% | 76% | 1.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.30 | fair |
| Chelsea win | 13% | 9% | 7.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Chelsea −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 66% | 1.60 | value: +5% |
| Under | 40% | 34% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alfie Gilchrist · Chelsea |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Benjamin White · Arsenal |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Arsenal |
| 70' | ⚽ | Benjamin White · Arsenal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benjamin White · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 478.00 |
| 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 4.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1866.49 | 1667.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.78 | 21.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 2.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 74.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.67 |
| solidity v1 | 1.79 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 24.67 |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 9.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 2.43 |