← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 57% | 58% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
| Fulham win | 21% | 24% | 4.65 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Fulham +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 32' | ⚽ | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Timothy Castagne · Fulham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 72' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 79' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1025.00 | 2586.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.93 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1829.15 | 2042.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.10 | -41.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.02 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 42.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 71.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 16.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 25.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 2.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 285.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 2.45 |