← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 43% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +12% |
| West Ham win | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| West Ham −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 50% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 50% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
| 16' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Emerson Palmieri · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 39' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | 🟨 | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Dean Henderson · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 80.00 |
| 1603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1564.82 | 1673.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.52 | -12.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 30.52 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 16.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.07 |