← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 25% | 31% | 4.03 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 37' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 55' | 🟨 | Illia Zabarnyi · Bournemouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 78' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days |
| 537.00 |
| 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1769.35 | 1581.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.38 | 16.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 63.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 197.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.36 |