← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 41% | 50% | 2.48 | value: +23% |
| Luton win | 33% | 26% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Brentford +0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ethan Pinnock · Brentford |
| 64' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Berry · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 536.00 | 2028.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1706.89 | 1808.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.45 | 3.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -1.45 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 44.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 1.52 |