← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.25 | value: +17% |
| Everton win | 20% | 19% | 5.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Everton −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 18' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 28' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Everton |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mykhaylo Mudryk · Chelsea |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 52' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 66' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfie Gilchrist · Chelsea |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 289.00 |
| 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.41 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1654.56 | 1568.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.41 | -17.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.82 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 28.87 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 287.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.55 |