← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
| Man United win | 36% | 32% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.10 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 31' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 36' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neto · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 287.00 | 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -8.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 12.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.57 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1799.54 | 1915.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.62 | -6.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -16.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | -2.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 25.34 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 2.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.15 |