← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 47% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Wolves win | 26% | 28% | 3.81 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Wolves −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 40' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 52' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 57' | ⚽ | Danilo Santos · Nott'm Forest |
| 62' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 77' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 134.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1540.49 | 1596.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.32 | -22.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 5.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 27.02 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 77.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.10 |