← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 39% | 26% | 2.48 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 37% | 51% | 2.65 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Newcastle +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 61% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 39% | 3.41 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 47' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 16 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 894.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1700.06 | 1738.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.83 | 11.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 47.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 1.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 388.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.89 |