← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 66% | 73% | 1.44 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.28 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 15% | 11% | 6.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Sheffield United +1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 39% | 3.05 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 66' | ⚽ | Noni Madueke · Chelsea |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oliver Arblaster · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 128.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1409.01 | 1659.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.04 | 22.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 2.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 25.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.34 | 1.30 |
| solidity v1 | -2.34 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 10.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 23.48 |
| state index | -1.11 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.41 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 227.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 2.42 |