← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 60% | 68% | 1.60 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.85 | fair |
| Man United win | 20% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +1 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Man United +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 68% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 23' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 50' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kobbie Mainoo · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Willy Kambwala · Man United |
| 80' | 🟨 | André Onana · Man United |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antony · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 28 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| Mason Mount · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 676.00 | 2572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1912.15 | 2085.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.98 | 10.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 2.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 48.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | 16.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 25.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 2.37 |
| solidity v1 | -2.14 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.56 | 2.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 44.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 2.76 |