← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +10% |
| Wolves win | 35% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Wolves +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.92 | value: +9% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 43' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 84' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Boubacar Traoré · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 249.00 | 1588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1606.35 | 1685.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.56 | 0.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 29.64 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 188.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.85 |