← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 58% | 65% | 1.67 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.22 | fair |
| Brentford win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 46' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 59' | ⚽ | Zanka · Brentford |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 68' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 84' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 522.00 | 2014.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1751.76 | 1587.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.04 | -12.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 59.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 2.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.76 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -2.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 157.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.56 |